Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
